Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.007509 0.008467 0.009515 0.010749 0.012167 0.013748 0.015648
2024-10-13 0.006245 0.007602 0.009221 0.011305 0.013935 0.017165 0.021464
2024-10-20 0.005179 0.006617 0.008430 0.010903 0.014223 0.018573 0.024779
2024-10-27 0.004473 0.005941 0.007873 0.010636 0.014538 0.019933 0.028095
2024-11-03 0.004037 0.005544 0.007605 0.010677 0.015216 0.021801 0.032311
2024-11-10 0.003808 0.005393 0.007639 0.011118 0.016482 0.024631 0.038322
2024-11-17 0.003450 0.005013 0.007296 0.010947 0.016785 0.026011 0.042217
2024-11-24 0.003200 0.004764 0.007112 0.010985 0.017396 0.027920 0.047227
2024-12-01 0.002925 0.004448 0.006790 0.010760 0.017538 0.029050 0.051014
2024-12-08 0.002783 0.004323 0.006752 0.010986 0.018449 0.031582 0.057690
2024-12-15 0.002608 0.004129 0.006583 0.010970 0.018926 0.033388 0.063246
2024-12-22 0.002367 0.003807 0.006174 0.010493 0.018520 0.033513 0.065481
2024-12-29 0.002212 0.003622 0.005989 0.010416 0.018874 0.035181 0.071286
2025-01-05 0.002171 0.003629 0.006136 0.010957 0.020472 0.039510 0.083576
2025-01-12 0.001990 0.003377 0.005805 0.010569 0.020199 0.040003 0.087398
2025-01-19 0.001846 0.003180 0.005555 0.010311 0.020155 0.040963 0.092462
2025-01-26 0.001757 0.003074 0.005463 0.010350 0.020727 0.043324 0.101323
2025-02-02 0.001725 0.003070 0.005560 0.010776 0.022169 0.047817 0.116413
2025-02-09 0.001623 0.002926 0.005378 0.010611 0.022296 0.049298 0.123919
2025-02-16 0.001552 0.002838 0.005297 0.010647 0.022878 0.051938 0.135102
2025-02-23 0.001460 0.002700 0.005107 0.010430 0.022848 0.053066 0.142218
2025-03-02 0.001420 0.002663 0.005116 0.010649 0.023870 0.056984 0.158344
2025-03-09 0.001359 0.002580 0.005024 0.010633 0.024322 0.059492 0.170735